1. Overview of PET Industry
——PET definition and classification
PET, also known as polyethylene terephthalate , is commonly abbreviated as polyester . PET is a milky white or light yellow, highly crystalline polymer with a smooth and glossy surface. It has excellent physical and mechanical properties over a wide temperature range, with a long-term use temperature of up to 120 ℃. Its electrical insulation is excellent, and even at high temperatures and high frequencies, its electrical performance is still good. However, it has poor corona resistance, creep resistance, fatigue resistance, friction resistance, and dimensional stability.
Pet Resin , as a polymer material, can be made into many different forms. If made into fibers, it is generally referred to as "polyester fiber" or "polyester". If it is made into pellets and then molded into plastic parts through technology, it is not called polyester fiber or polyester. In this case, PET is usually written directly. For example, the plastic bottles we usually drink have a triangular mark at the bottom that says "1 PET". For example, toothbrushes, tempered film for mobile phones, and so on, are also made of PET.
2) Analysis of the PET Industry Chain: Widely Used Downstream
At present, the PET industry chain in China involves a wide range of fields. The upstream of the PET industry chain is mainly the petrochemical industry, involving synthetic materials such as PX (p-xylene), PTA, and MEG (ethylene glycol).
The middle reaches of the PET industry chain mainly focus on the preparation of PET materials. Depending on their morphology, PET materials can be divided into PET fibers, PET bottle sheets, and PET films.
The downstream of the PET industry chain mainly involves various applications of PET materials, among which fiber grade products, also known as polyester, have high strength and good fabric wear performance. Currently, it is the highest production variety of synthetic fibers. Short fibers can be blended with cotton, wool, and linen to make textiles for clothing or interior decoration fabrics; Filament can be used for clothing or industrial purposes, such as filter fabrics, tire cords, parachutes, conveyor belts, seat belts, etc ; PET bottles have high transparency and good barrier properties, and can be used as fresh-keeping packaging materials. Such as beer, Baijiu, carbonated drinks, edible oil, food, condiments, drugs, cosmetics and health food; Mainly used for packaging materials, such as food, medicine, and non-toxic and sterile sanitary packaging; High end packaging for textiles, precision instruments, and electronic components; Recording tapes, videotapes, photographic negatives, cinematography films, magnetic disks, CDs, and magnetic cards and other substrates; Capacitor film, flexible printed circuit board, and thin film switch, etc.
2. Development history of China's PET industry: The industry has entered a mature stage
PET industry in European and American countries started in 1941, and Whitfield and Dickson in the UK first synthesized linear aromatic polyester PET with good performance. Subsequently, it went through four main stages: exploration, development, growth, and maturity.
The industrial production of PET
Resin in China developed relatively late. In 1965, the production of polyester fibers was only 100 tons, accounting for approximately 1.92% of the total synthetic fiber production in the country. Starting from the 1970s, polyester production equipment and technology were introduced on a large scale and produced on a large scale in a short period of time. Between 1996 and 2003, China's polyester production increased significantly, with an average annual increase of 820000 tons of polyester fibers, accounting for more than half of the world's annual increase, and becoming the main country driving the growth of polyester fibers worldwide. In 2007, the production of polyester filament in China reached 12.2 million tons, accounting for 62.5% of the world's total polyester production and becoming the world's largest producer of polyester filament.
Throughout the development process of PET production technology in China, although the industry started relatively late, after more than 40 years of development, it has become the world's largest producer of polyester fiber filaments, and has made significant progress in new product development, fiber differentiation rate system formation, complete equipment localization, investment rate per 10000 tons, and independent research and development capabilities.
3. Background of China's PET industry policy: actively introducing policies to support industry development
PET is an excellent environmentally friendly new material widely used in downstream food and beverage, daily chemical, medical and pharmaceutical fields. It is one of the key high-tech industries supported by the state. In recent years, the country and various levels of government have formulated a series of industry support policies to promote its healthy development, creating a good environment for the development of the PET industry.
4. Analysis of the Development Status of China's PET Industry
——Supply situation of China's PET market : The growth rate of China's PET production capacity and output is gradually slowing down China's polyester production capacity has increased from 45.82 million tons in 2016 to 71.37 million tons in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 7.16%. The period from 2016 to 2019 was the peak period for polyester production. From 2020 to 2022, although domestic polyester production capacity continued to grow, the growth rate gradually slowed down, and the industry faced a crisis of overcapacity. New production capacity gradually decreased, and some outdated production capacity was eliminated. In 2022, a total of 5.645 million tons of new production capacity were added, 1.02 million tons of waste production capacity were removed, and some products underwent capacity adjustment. In 2022, due to the impact of the epidemic and domestic power rationing policies, weak terminal demand has dragged down the market, resulting in low operating rates of domestic polyester enterprises and a slowdown in the growth rate of polyester production.
2) The demand situation of China's PET market: The apparent consumption of PET in China has declined
In 2022, the apparent consumption of polyester showed a downward trend, with the domestic apparent consumption of polyester around 48.99 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.25% compared to last year. From the perspective of domestic demand in the PET industry in 2022, on the one hand, it is affected by the insufficient domestic supply caused by the significant increase in export demand, and on the other hand, it is also affected by the disturbance of downstream demand caused by multiple epidemics in 2022. The impact of the epidemic on the downstream of domestic bottle tablets in 2023 will gradually decrease, which is expected to bring about a rebound in domestic demand for bottle tablets.
5. Analysis of the competitive landscape of China's PET industry
——Competitive landscape of segmented products in China's PET industry: polyester fiber production capacity accounts for the largest proportion
According to data, the domestic polyester production capacity was adjusted to 74.42 million tons in April 2023, including fiber grade production capacity of about 6.985 million tons, bottle grade PET production capacity of about 12.975 million tons, polyester filament production capacity of about 42.48 million tons, polyester staple production capacity of about 9.46 million tons, and film grade PET production capacity of about 2.52 million tons.
2) Regional competition pattern in China's PET industry: New production capacity will be concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in 2022
In 2022, the newly added polyester production capacity in China is mainly distributed in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, accounting for over 70% of the total.
3) The competitive landscape of Chinese PET industry enterprises : leading enterprises leading the industry
In recent years, the market share of polyester leading enterprises has gradually increased. According to statistics, as of now, there are 10 domestic polyester enterprises with a production capacity of over 2 million tons, with a total production capacity of 43.735 million tons, accounting for approximately 61% of the total domestic polyester production capacity. Among them, Hengyi has a production capacity of 8.38 million tons, Xinfengming has a polyester production capacity of 7.5 million tons, and Tongkun has a polyester production capacity of 7.1 million tons. The total production capacity of the three companies is 22.98 million tons, accounting for 32% of the total domestic polyester production capacity, with a large market share. The polyester industry pattern led by leading enterprises is taking shape.
6. Development prospects and trend prediction of China's PET industry
——It is expected that the new production capacity of China's PET industry will exceed 9 million tons by 2023
In 2023, China's polyester industry will have about 9.23 million tons of new production capacity put into operation, including 4.5 million tons of polyester filament , 1.73 million tons of polyester staple fiber , and 3 million tons of bottle flakes . It is expected that the production capacity base will increase to about 80.74 million tons per year in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of about 12.91%. However, macroeconomic and policy adjustments still have significant uncertainties for the market, and production may not be fully realized. However, the continuous expansion of domestic production capacity will further highlight the supply pressure.
