1、 Price trend
According to the data (average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), on March 4, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8750 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with 8450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, an increase of 3.55% during the week and 1.16% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
Boosted by the rise of crude oil this week, the disk is strong, and the PVC spot also began to strengthen with other energy and chemical sectors, breaking the 9000 mark hand in hand. This week, the quotation of PVC enterprises increased by about 250-400 yuan / ton, and the market bullish mood is strong. With the continuous improvement of the operating rate of downstream products industry, the market transaction atmosphere has improved, but most of them focus on medium and low-end prices, the transaction at high prices is still not smooth, and the wait-and-see mood of operators is growing. At present, the price of raw calcium carbide is stable at about 4050-4150 yuan / ton, the quotation range of domestic PVC SG5 calcium carbide enterprises is mostly around 8450-9050 yuan / ton, the PVC SG5 calcium carbide in Tianjin is 8870-8820 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 8950-9050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Changzhou is 8900 yuan / ton, Recently, prices have risen in domestic markets.
According to the weekly increase and decrease from December 6, 2021 to February 27, 2022, the domestic PVC cycle has been mixed, with the largest decrease of 2.54% in the week of December 13 and 3.84% in the week of February 7, 2022, and then continued to decline.
At present, CFR China is up 10 to US $1310 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia is up 20 to US $1340 / ton, and CFR India is stable to US $1560 / ton.
International crude oil, on March 3, the price of international crude oil futures fell. Earlier, oil prices hit a new high in nearly 10 years. Yesterday, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $107.67/barrel, down US $2.93 or 2.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $110.46/barrel, down US $2.47 or 2.2%. The US Iran nuclear negotiations have made some progress, and Iranian oil has returned to the international supply market, which has alleviated the tension of supply to a certain extent.
Ethylene, the ethylene market in the outer disk of the week showed an overall upward trend. Ethylene market prices in Asia rose. As of the 2nd, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1246-1256 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1246-1256 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 2nd, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1459-1467 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1270-1278 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated slightly. As of the 2nd, the price was 816-834 yuan / ton. The external ethylene market rose sharply this week, which was mainly affected by the sharp rise of upstream crude oil. The price rise was gratifying, and the rise of ethylene in Europe and Asia was relatively large.
Calcium carbide, in mid and early March, the market of calcium carbide may rise slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon was adjusted at a low level, the cost support of calcium carbide was insufficient, the downstream PVC market rose slightly, and the downstream demand increased. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in the middle and early March.
3、 Future forecast
At present, boosted by the rise of crude oil, the disk is strong, and the bullish sentiment in the PVC market is strong. With the weakening of market factors in the off-season, the downstream demand continues to increase, and the export expectation is good, the PVC market is expected to be stable and upward.
