After the Spring Festival, the oil market is booming, and even hit a new high price in recent seven years. In addition, the downstream construction recovery is good, the trading atmosphere of the whole chemical market is active, and the operation confidence of people in the industry is positive, which drives the whole industry to continue to improve. After the festival, the chemical market welcomes the "good start". According to the monitoring of Guanghua trading data, the chemical market has been relatively stable since 2021. The price index of chemical products in South China hovered around 1150 points, and the post holiday index rose to more than 1200 points, up 96 points or 8.5% compared with the lowest point 1134 in December.
Driven by the continuous improvement of the whole chemical market, the domestic Caustic Soda market is also booming. The price has continued to rise since the festival, which is completely unexpected. In the liquid alkali market, taking Shandong as an example, the price rose by 240-280 yuan / ton, or 26% - 34%; In the flake alkali market, Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the price rose by 700-800 yuan / ton, or more than 20%.
The rise of caustic soda market price is mainly due to the maintenance of some main chlor alkali enterprises, the continuous improvement of export market and the good resumption of work in downstream industries. The tight supply situation in the market drives the continuous rise of price. Whether the caustic soda market can maintain the current good situation in the later stage is mainly affected by the following factors. Let's see the analysis.
1. Supply side. At present, chlor alkali enterprises have less maintenance, the start-up of units is stable at about 82%, and there are not many enterprises with subsequent maintenance plans. From the current situation, the market supply will not change greatly.
2. Demand side. At present, about 80% of the alumina industry is under construction. The production capacity suspended due to the Winter Olympic Games before the Spring Festival has also resumed after the festival. The production lines affected by the epidemic in Guangxi are also resuming production. At present, the overall construction of the industry has returned to normal. As of February 16, the mainstream price in Shandong was 3300-3320 yuan / ton, the mainstream price in Shanxi was 3280-3320 yuan / ton, the mainstream price in Henan was 3280-3320 yuan / ton, the mainstream price in Guangxi was 3230-3260 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price in Guizhou was 3280-3320 yuan / ton. The price increased by 140-270 yuan / ton compared with the end of January. Judging from the start-up and price of alumina, it will support the caustic soda market.
The resumption of work in the downstream non aluminum industry after the festival is also better than in previous years. It is understood that the resumption power of large and medium-sized enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the first week after the festival basically reached 80%. In addition, the price of raw materials rose sharply and the downstream purchase orders increased, which increased the enthusiasm of the textile industry, which was also transmitted to the caustic soda industry, and the demand for caustic soda also increased to a certain extent.
3. Driven by the continuous improvement of the export market, the supply areas in Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other coastal areas are tight, which makes the domestic supply tight and plays a strong support for the current market.
On the whole, the supply and demand sides of the caustic soda market are well supported, and the market will still show a strong trend in the short term. In the medium and long term, more attention should be paid to the commencement of downstream alumina and the impact of the two sessions on the industry.
This week, the main actors in the domestic liquid alkali market, and the prices in most regions increased to varying degrees. Due to the maintenance of some major enterprises in Shandong, the supply of goods in the market decreased. In addition, the local alumina enterprises raised the purchase price of liquid alkali by 80 yuan / ton again within the week, implemented 960 yuan / ton, the price of 32% ionic membrane alkali increased by 140-230 yuan / ton, and the price of 50% ionic membrane alkali increased by 150-170 yuan / ton; The local trading atmosphere in Hebei is acceptable, and driven by Shandong, the local price also rises; The overhaul of individual enterprises in East China, coupled with large exports and tight supply, has led to a sharp rise in prices, ranging from 150-300 yuan / ton; The export of Tianjin is better and driven by the general environment, and the local price also rises accordingly; In Henan Province, the operation of units is stable, the downstream demand is good, and the price rises, with a range of 200 yuan / ton (100%); The supply in Inner Mongolia is tight, and the local price is also rising due to the sharp rise of local flake alkali price; The supply of goods in South China is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. Affected by the general environment, the local price also rises.
At present, the start-up of the liquid alkali market is stable. Due to the resumption of production of downstream factories and the continuous improvement of the export market, the favorable market will still dominate on the demand side. In the short term, the domestic liquid alkali market will still be dominated by strong operation.
This week, the domestic flake alkali market rose sharply, and the prices of main producing areas followed the prices of main selling areas. The quotation of main manufacturers in Inner Mongolia increased by 650 yuan / ton compared with last week. At present, the price of 99% of flake alkali manufacturers in Inner Mongolia is 4300-4400 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is lower.
At present, the plant of flake alkali manufacturers has started stably. Because flake alkali manufacturers in Northwest China have certain pre-sale orders, and alumina enterprises begin to purchase flake alkali, especially the shortage of liquid alkali supply in alumina plants in Southwest China, they purchase flake alkali, which drives the quotation of flake alkali manufacturers in Xinjiang; The market transaction atmosphere in Shandong is good, the supply side starts normally, the pre-sale volume is large, the downstream goods are received actively, and the manufacturer's price also rises according to the trend. At present, the supply of manufacturers is tight. In addition to the support of terminal demand, traders also operate actively, and the overall market has a strong bullish atmosphere. At the same time, it should be noted that the current high price will also inhibit the enthusiasm of terminal non aluminum downstream procurement to a certain extent.
At present, the supply and demand sides of the flake alkali market are well supported, and the insiders operate actively. In view of this, it is expected that the domestic flake alkali market will still show an upward trend next week, but the range will slow down. In the later stage, we should pay close attention to the changes of market supply and demand.
