This week, the price of domestic chemical products continued to rise sharply, silicone intermediates and a variety of silicone rubber, silicone oil, Carbon Black and other products
The weekly price increases are more than 10%. We can see that the general sharp rise of chemical products in this round is against the background of a substantial recovery of domestic terminal demand and downstream replenishment cycle. At the same time, due to the force majeure or shutdown of some overseas chemical plants caused by the second foreign epidemic, the demand for overseas orders of domestic chemical products was further increased. At the same time, due to the domestic epidemic situation and the sharp drop of crude oil prices in the first half of the year, the demand for overseas orders of domestic chemical products was further increased In the first half of the year, the prices of most domestic chemical products fell to a historical low, which led to the low operating rate of the industry and the passive de stocking of chemical products. At present, the inventory level of most chemical products is still at a low level. At the same time, the domestic economic recovery has led to strong demand. Overseas orders of some subdivision industries are scheduled to the first quarter of next year, while the domestic enterprises in the next year are still at a low level
The industry and downstream sectors will also enter the replenishment cycle, and the international oil price is also in a long-term upward channel. We will continue to watch the continued upward trend of the prosperity of many chemical industries. In the near future, we will focus on the rising trend of the prices of carbon black, silicone, Titanium Dioxide, spandex and other products and the related elastic targets.
Carbon black prices continue to rise
Since the third quarter, the domestic carbon black price has continued to rise, and the underlying reasons are the high degree of tire industry chain and the de capacity and low opening rate of coking carbon black industry chain. This week, the mainstream ex factory price of N330 carbon black in Shandong Province was 6800-7200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of N330 carbon black in Shanxi Province rose to 6700-7000 yuan / ton, 300-400 yuan / ton higher than last week's average price. Since the beginning of June, the domestic carbon black price has increased by more than 50%. This week, the average operating rate of the industry is about 65%. The air pollution control policies in autumn and winter of 2020-2021 are strict. Some carbon black enterprises in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Fenwei plain and other areas have limited their production. Some large-scale enterprises have started to limit production by more than 20%. Carbon black enterprises in severe areas are expected to limit production by 50%. In the future, the operating rate of carbon black enterprises is expected to decline to 10% At the end of the month, the inventory of carbon black industry was 120000 tons, down 62% compared with the same period last year, and 22% month on month. The inventory level is still expected to continue to decline in the future. The operating rate of downstream all steel tire in Shandong is about 73%, which is about 5% higher than that of the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic semi steel tire enterprises is about 70%, which is 3% higher than that of the same period last year. At the same time, the customs data shows that China's tire export volume maintained double growth on the same month in September, and the foreign trade export situation is better. Affected by the capacity of Shanxi's decoking enterprises, the price of raw coal tar remains strong. Since October, the coal tar in the main production areas has increased by 350-4000 yuan / ton. At present, the price of coal tar in Shanxi and Hebei is about 2750-2800 At present, the northern region has entered the heating season, which will have an impact on the operating rate of coal tar carbon black industry. Under the background of higher operating rate of downstream tire industry, carbon black price is expected to continue to rise. In December, the industry is expected to increase 800-1000 yuan / ton with new orders from tire manufacturers.
Silicone products continue to rise
This week, the price of silicone products continued to soar by about 3000 yuan / ton. Most DMC enterprises did not make an offer. The mainstream transaction price was 33000-34500 yuan / ton. Since the end of August, the price has increased by 17000 yuan / ton, reaching 110%. On the downstream side, most enterprises have also closed their plates, the price of raw rubber has risen to about 34000-35000 yuan / ton, the price of 107 rubber has risen to 33000-34000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of domestic silicone oil in East China has risen to about 34000-36000 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials, the price of 421 silicon metal rose slightly to about 13700-14000 yuan / ton, while the price of methanol in East China decreased slightly by 20 yuan / ton to 1930 yuan / ton. The silicone products have soared. On the one hand, affected by the epidemic situation overseas, organosilicon intermediate manufacturers such as Dow Corning and French Eken have reduced the load operation, and the downstream silica gel enterprises have stopped production and operated at a reduced rate. Part of the overseas demand for Thanksgiving and Christmas high-temperature glue has been transferred to China. At the same time, overseas customers and dealers have inventory replenishment needs. On the other hand, silicone oil can be applied to textile industry In the fields of chemicals and public health care, due to the out of control epidemic situation in India, Pakistan, Southeast Asia and other countries, European and American textile and garment orders returned to China, boosting the demand for silicone oil. At present, the inventory of domestic silicone upstream manufacturers is very low, and the orders of downstream high-temperature rubber enterprises are full. Most export orders have been signed to the end of the year, so the short-term demand is not worrying. In terms of operating rate, this week's operating rate is about 80%, which is basically the same as last week. Zhejiang Zhongtian's 120000 T / a unit was shut down due to fire, while Jiangxi Xinghuo's 500000 T / a unit needs to be overhauled for 40 days before the Spring Festival. In the short term, supply and demand of DMC continue to be tight. In terms of new capacity, in June 2020, Xingfa group completed the expansion of 160000 tons of monomer technical transformation project, Xin'an Co., Ltd. completed the expansion of 160000 tons of monomer capacity in October, and Hesheng silicon Shihezi base is expected to be put into operation by the end of the first quarter of next year, so the rate of capacity release in the near future will slow down. To sum up, we still believe that the price of silicone products will continue to accelerate.
Titanium dioxide prices rebounded significantly
Recently, under the pressure of continuous promotion of titanium concentrate cost and the increase of coating demand driven by automobile and real estate boom, the domestic titanium dioxide price has rebounded obviously. At present, the domestic price of rutile titanium dioxide by sulfuric ACID method has risen from about 11000 yuan / ton in early July to 15000-16000 yuan / ton at present, and the domestic price of titanium concentrate grade 46 has risen to 1950-2000 At the same time, the export volume of titanium dioxide in August and September was more than 110000 tons, which was far higher than the same period last year. At the same time, the export orders of domestic enterprises were arranged to January and February next year In January, the overseas demand was very full, and the inventory level of domestic manufacturers and dealers was very low. In the future, under the background of the rising price of titanium concentrate and the continuous recovery of domestic and foreign demand, the price of titanium dioxide will still maintain the upward channel.
