Low inventory needs support
Since the beginning of June, the domestic Carbon Black market has been on the rise. Especially after four rounds of big rises in June, September, October and November, the price has increased by 2900-3200 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 75%. As of December 8, the ex factory self raised price of carbon black N330 in Shandong market was 7000 ~ 7400 yuan, and that in Shanxi market was 6900 ~ 7100 yuan.
At present, the inventory of carbon black enterprises is low, the demand for downstream tires is good, and the price of raw coal tar is strong. Under the support of these favorable factors, it is expected that the short-term carbon black market will continue to be strong, with considerable profit space.
High price of raw materials
In the fourth quarter, the 4.3m coke oven exit policy implemented in Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and other places in the main production areas of carbon black raw material coal tar intensified the situation of tight supply of coal tar market. At present, the capacity of coke enterprises has been reduced to nearly 16.29 million tons. It is expected that the main coal tar production areas will continue to exit in December, and the situation of tight market supply will continue.
Since September, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market has been in an upward state, which has an obvious supporting effect on the rise of carbon black price. On December 8, the mainstream reference price of coal tar in Shandong was 2795 yuan, which was 465 yuan higher than that on October 9. Although the price of coal tar has declined to a certain extent recently, due to its strong resistance to fall, the overall impact on carbon black pricing is small, and the carbon black price may continue to maintain a high level.
From the beginning of June to the end of November, the mainstream price of domestic coal tar rose by 750 ~ 1100 yuan, and the cost of carbon black increased by 1125 ~ 1815 yuan, which supported the rise of carbon black price from the cost side.
Limited supply
Since the second half of the year, the increase of the load of low-level stacking device of production enterprises has been hindered, resulting in the shortage of carbon black market and the continuous rise of price.
The second half of the year is near the end of the 13th five year plan and the blue sky defense war. The air pollution control policy requirements in autumn and winter of 2020-2021 are particularly strict, including the main carbon black production areas of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and its surrounding areas, Fenwei plain, Yangtze River Delta, etc. Some large enterprises in these regions have started to limit production by more than 20%, and some small enterprises have even limited production to 50%. The carbon black industry has been affected by production capacity of nearly 2.8 million tons.
Recently, the average operating rate of domestic carbon black industry is 65%, which is 1.69% lower than that in November. As of the end of November, the inventory of domestic carbon black enterprises was 113000 tons, down 3.29% month on month and 62.63% compared with the same period last year. At the beginning of December, the operating rate and inventory of carbon black industry continued to be low. At present, the inventory of each enterprise has been in a very low level, if it wants to reach the normal state, it needs at least two months of buffer period. Carbon black production in the later stage will also be affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the continuation of environmental protection pressure. The overall operating rate will not be greatly improved, basically maintained at around 65%. It is difficult to increase the supply. It is expected that the carbon black price in January next year will remain relatively strong.
Downstream rigid support
In the near future, the demand for automobiles and tires is improving, which forms a strong support for the rise of carbon black price.
According to the data, China's automobile production and sales increased by 11% and 12.5% respectively in October, which has achieved year-on-year growth for seven consecutive months.
From June to October, the carbon black demand of tire industry increased by nearly 120000 tons compared with the same period last year, while the output of carbon black enterprises decreased by 47600 tons in the same period. In November, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 73%, with a year-on-year increase of 5%; and that of semi steel tire enterprises was 70%, with a year-on-year increase of 3%. At present, the inventory of tire enterprises is still at a reasonable level. Under the support of replenishment just a year ago, the intention of enterprises to reduce the operating rate is not strong. At the same time, export orders have recovered steadily, which further supports tire enterprises to maintain a high operating rate. Overall, tire enterprises have a strong demand for carbon black in the short term, and it is expected that the carbon black market will still stand up.
In addition, the self-discipline of carbon black industry has been improved, and the low price game phenomenon has been improved. This is also to support the late carbon black prices continue to strengthen the positive factors.
