"In 2020, the Carbon Black industry has withstood the test of the epidemic, and production has gradually recovered from the second half of the year, ushering in the" little spring "of market demand growth, and the profitability of enterprises has also been improved. But on the whole, there is a lack of high-end products, the profitability is still below the average level of the industry, and most of the exports are low-end products, with both volume and price falling. " Shen Jinliang, chairman of carbon black branch of China Rubber Industry Association, summed up last year's carbon black industry at the enlarged meeting of directors of carbon black branch of China Rubber Industry Association held in Qingdao on April 20. However, based on the macro favorable situation that China's industrial economy will gradually return to a reasonable growth range, it is estimated that the production and sales of carbon black in 2021 will be better than that in 2020, the output growth rate is expected to reach 2% ~ 4%, and the economic benefits of the industry will continue to improve.
Effective capacity growth
Lack of high-end products
According to the statistics of the carbon black branch of China Rubber Association, the national carbon black output in 2020 will be 5.7 million tons, down 0.91% from the previous year. Among the enterprises with an output of more than 100000 tons, the output of five enterprises decreased from the previous year. The output of Jiangxi black cat, Longxing Chemical and Cabot carbon black, which ranked in the top three, decreased by 4.75%, 6.09% and 19.23% respectively. In 2020, the effective capacity of carbon black in China will reach 8.27 million tons, an increase of 7.58% over the previous year. In recent two years, due to the growth of market demand, domestic carbon black production capacity has also increased rapidly. The production capacity of Shandong Jinneng, Shanxi Anlun, Shanxi Sanqiang, Suzhou Baohua, Maoming Huanxing, Shandong Lianke and other enterprises has increased.
Shen Jinliang pointed out that China is already a big producer of carbon black. In the production of carbon black for ordinary rubber, China has the advantages of low consumption of raw materials and exhaust gas, but there is still a big gap in the high-end special carbon black, and basically relies on imports. This is mainly because the amount of high-end special carbon black is relatively small, and enterprises are not willing to invest too much in R & D“ Only when we truly become a powerful carbon black country in the world can we improve the quality of R & D and fill the market vacancy of high-end special carbon black in China. " Shen Jinliang said.
Profits have improved
Below average
Shen Jinliang told reporters that in 2020, the profitability of the carbon black industry will be improved, and the whole industry will turn losses into profits, with a profit margin of 3.28%, but it has not yet reached the average profit margin level of the rubber industry.
According to the statistics of China Rubber Association, the average profit margin of rubber industry in 2020 will be 5.94%. Among them, the profit margin of tire industry was 5.43%; The highest profit margin was in rubber additives industry, which reached 9.18%; The lowest profit margin is the skeleton material industry, which is 1.85%; The profit margin of carbon black industry is the third from the bottom“ It can be seen that the development of carbon black industry still has a long way to go. Carbon black enterprises should actively respond to market changes, abandon unfair market competition, and maintain a reasonable profit margin. Only in this way can the carbon black industry continue to develop with high quality. " Shen Jinliang pointed out.
Export volume and price fall
High end import
According to customs statistics, China will export 671900 tons of carbon black in 2020, a decrease of 17.27% over the previous year; The export value was 580 million US dollars, down 30.11% over the previous year; The average export price was US $858, down 15.47% from the previous year.
It is understood that among China's major carbon black exporting countries and regions, except Taiwan, China, the export volume decreased compared with the previous year, with India as the largest exporter, with a decrease of 54.18%.
"On January 5 this year, the tax bureau of the Ministry of finance of India announced that it decided to terminate the anti-dumping duty on carbon black for rubber made in China. It is expected that the amount of carbon black exported from China to India will increase in varying degrees this year." Shen Jinliang said.
In terms of imports, China will import 87000 tons of carbon black in 2020, an increase of 15.32% over the previous year; The import value was 230 million US dollars, an increase of 7.19% over the previous year; The average import price was US $2690, down 7.08% from the previous year.
Shen Jinliang pointed out that in 2020, China's imported carbon black varieties are still dominated by high-end special carbon black, the average price of imported carbon black is three times higher than that of exported carbon black, and high-end special carbon black has always been China's short board.
Increasing consumer demand
Economic benefits improved
Shen Jinliang believes that China's industrial economy will gradually return to a reasonable growth range in 2021. First of all, the new generation of information technology, biomedicine, high-end equipment manufacturing and other strategic emerging industries have a strong momentum of development, and the industrial scale has accelerated, which will form an important new growth point leading economic development. Secondly, digital technologies such as industrial Internet, big data and artificial intelligence have accelerated their penetration and integration with the manufacturing industry, continuously improving the digitization, networking and intelligence level of traditional industries, and promoting traditional industries to move towards high-end. Thirdly, under the new development pattern, China's strong domestic market potential will gradually release, which will bring huge growth space for industrial development. Overall, China's industrial economy will gradually return to a reasonable growth range. Considering the low base effect this year, it is estimated that the added value of industries above Designated Size will increase by 6.5% ~ 7.5% in 2021.
"The rise of new energy vehicles will further drive the sustainable development of China's automobile industry. In addition, considering the large-scale vaccination, foreign economic recovery will be full of hope, and the coordination of the new US government's China policy may be strengthened, and the Sino US trade friction is expected to ease in stages, which gives a glimmer of hope for tire export and may lead to an increase in carbon black consumption. " Shen Jinliang said.
Overall, the production and sales of carbon black in 2021 will be better than that in 2020, and the output growth rate is expected to reach 2% ~ 4%. Through the joint efforts of the whole industry, the economic benefits of the industry will continue to improve.
