In June, there was a wind of price increase in the Carbon Black market. This wind has been blowing until September, and the cumulative price rise range of mainstream market is 1350-1550 yuan / ton. Since the middle of October, the carbon black industry has become more and more willing to keep rising, so will the wind continue to blow in November?
From June to September 2020, the mainstream market price of coal tar will increase by 300-600 yuan / ton, which will be transferred to the production cost of carbon black enterprises at 490-1000 yuan / ton. When the mainstream market price of carbon black increases by 1350-1550 yuan / ton, which is greater than the cost increase, the profit level of the enterprise in the second half of the year is relatively considerable. From October 1 to 20, the price of coal tar was stable and relatively strong, with the mainstream increase of 10-30 yuan / ton, while that in Hebei was relatively large, which was about 90 yuan / ton. The production cost transferred to carbon black enterprises ranged from 20 to 150 yuan / ton.
Last week, the domestic deep-processing enterprises did not start work at a high level under centralized maintenance, the downstream market of deep-processing products had a high enthusiasm for inquiry, and the prices of asphalt and industrial naphthalene were all increased under the situation of tight supply. As of October 19, the start-up of domestic deep-processing enterprises only maintained at 46%. Under no pressure of short-term supply, the price may still have a certain upward space, forming a favorable support for the price of coal tar to continue to rise. Carbon black feedstock oil accounts for more than 80% of the total carbon black cost. The good expectation of raw material oil price has a certain cost side favorable support for the rise of new single price of carbon black.
In September, the overall operating load of domestic all steel tire enterprises was 73.39%, up 3.73% over the same period of last year, and the demand for carbon black exceeded the level of the same period last year. The main support of high tire production is the continuous concentrated production period of export orders, which is superimposed on the increase of tire demand in the matching market. Meanwhile, the expected price rise in the tire market also has a certain pull on the improvement of market trading enthusiasm.
In September, the finished product inventory of tire enterprises showed a downward trend, and the overall tire enterprise inventory pressure was not large. In October, the inventory of some tire enterprises may still show a downward trend: first, some enterprises have a certain reduction in production on the national day, resulting in a decrease in tire production; second, the strong driving force of export orders makes the tire demand momentum fair, driving the increase of tire sales; third, the continuous price rise policy of tire enterprises in the month is conducive to the continued driving of market buying sentiment. There is no obvious pressure on inventory. In addition, the export market orders are still good. The high start-up in the aftermarket of tires may continue to be beyond the middle of November. It is beneficial for carbon black enterprises to negotiate prices if the carbon black stocks are relatively large and need to be replenished.
This week, some domestic carbon black enterprises tentatively reported an increase of 300-500 yuan / ton for non tire customers, and the dealers' market was dominated by inventory and shipment, and the prices were more stable temporarily. The main impact of coal tar price on the carbon black market in the short term is the psychological support. The rigid demand purchase of tire enterprises and the low inventory of carbon black enterprises are the main driving force of carbon black price rising in the future. On the whole, carbon black enterprises with new single price negotiation in November have a greater advantage in the dual game of supply and demand and mentality, and the actual landing increase of new single price of tire factory may be more than 300 yuan / ton.
