Since June, under the influence of monetary tightening policies implemented by central banks in many countries and the expected rise of economic recession in Europe and the United States, international bulk commodities have fluctuated violently, and the prices of many varieties have begun to decline. Among them, ferrous metals and non-ferrous metals are the first to fall, followed by some agricultural products, while the decline of energy and chemical industry is relatively lagging, but it has also begun to decline significantly recently, especially involving coal, coke The steel industry chain also experienced a serious decline.
According to statistics, at present, coking coal, the main raw material of coal tar, has fallen from 3300 yuan to around 2200 yuan, and some regions have even fallen below the 2000 mark; Coke was fully implemented in the fifth round of lifting and lowering, with a cumulative decrease of about 1200 yuan; Since March this year, due to the epidemic, the downstream demand of steel has been weak and the price has continued to fall. In addition, the international crude oil price also fell from a high to around $100 / barrel. How will Carbon Black be affected by the peak fall of commodity prices? Can carbon black survive the fall of bulk commodities? The editor of this issue will give you an analysis.
First of all, from the demand side, carbon black is also facing the same problems as coal, coke and steel, that is, the demand side is extremely weak. For the tire industry in the main market, the overall operating load of tire enterprises remained low in June and July due to the high raw materials, supply chain constraints, weak demand, high inventory and other problems, and there was no significant positive improvement support in the short term. In other markets, the current operating load of the Plastic Masterbatch industry is even less than 50%, far lower than the same period last year; At present, the rubber products industry is also sluggish, and carbon black is lack of support on the market demand side as a whole.
Secondly, from the cost side, the current carbon black cost is high, and carbon black enterprises are generally facing the pressure of operating losses. For China, the supply of raw material coal tar is tight, and the price remains high; In foreign countries, crude oil prices are high due to the Russian Ukrainian war. However, it should be noted that this situation may also change, such as the implementation of monetary tightening policies in many countries, and the market's expectation of future economic recession may pull down the price of crude oil. In China, the national macro-control policies have been implemented successively in the second half of the year, and the recovery of market demand for steel is likely to drive the operating load of coke enterprises to increase. At that time, the supply of coal tar in the market will increase significantly. If the supply and demand situation changes, the price of coal tar may decline sharply, while carbon black will lose its cost support.
Moreover, from the perspective of supply, at present, the inventory of some carbon black enterprises is still high, and the overall operating load of the carbon black industry in July did not significantly reduce production as many operators said. At present, the probability of carbon black enterprises will remain the current situation in the short term, and the market carbon black supply will remain relatively sufficient in the short term.
Based on the above situation, the current peak fall in commodity prices still has a large negative impact on carbon black. If the cost falls sharply in the future, carbon black may also follow the general environment.
