1 overview of PVC
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is an important organic synthetic material in China. Its products have good physical and chemical properties, and are widely used in industry, construction, agriculture, daily life, packaging, electric power, public utilities and other fields.
Polyvinyl chloride is a kind of nontoxic and odorless white powder. It has high chemical stability and good plasticity. Good electrical insulation, generally will not burn. It is mainly used in building doors and windows, drainage pipes, wires and cables, film packaging and other fields.
In terms of product classification, PVC belongs to the synthetic Resin category among the three major synthetic materials (synthetic resin, synthetic fiber and synthetic rubber). The synthetic resin category includes five general resins: polyethylene PE, polyvinyl chloride PVC, Polypropylene PP, polystyrene PS and ABS resin.
The rapid development of national economy has led to the rapid expansion of PVC production and consumption in China. At present, China is the world's largest producer and consumer of PVC. By the end of 2019, China's PVC production will reach 2011 million tons, and its apparent consumption will reach 20.31 million tons. Since 2004, the average annual growth rate is 8.2%.
In China, calcium carbide process and ethylene process coexist, and there are many factors affecting each link of the industrial chain. Coupled with the frequent fluctuations in the prices of coal, crude oil, calcium carbide and other raw materials, the price of PVC fluctuates frequently and sharply in the short term, which aggravates the operational risks of domestic PVC manufacturers, traders and downstream products industries, and enterprises have a greater demand for hedging .
2 Global PVC capacity
From 2003 to 2013, the global PVC production capacity increased by a large margin. After the production capacity reached its peak in 2014, the global PVC new production capacity decreased significantly in 2015-2016, and the global PVC production capacity decreased slightly due to more exiting production capacity. The new production capacity increased again in 2016-2019. According to Zhuo Chuang's statistics, by the end of 2019, the global production capacity will reach 56.19 million tons. Among them, Asian production capacity accounts for more than 62.1%, while China's production capacity accounts for 45.5% of the world, followed by about 15% in North America and 10.6% in Western Europe.
3. PVC production in China
In 2019, the apparent consumption of PVC in China will be 20.31 million tons, an increase of 431100 tons compared with 2018, including 20.31 million tons of domestic production, 751300 tons of import and 548700 tons of export.
In 2013-2015, under the market-oriented regulation, the effective production capacity of China's PVC industry was in a gradual downward trend, with a cumulative decline of about 2.5 million tons in three years. In 2015, the PVC production capacity reached a low point of 22.22 million tons. After capacity removal, the supply and demand of PVC returned to a relatively balanced state at the end of 2015. From 2016 to 2019, the operation of PVC market improved, and the capacity began to increase again. In 2019, China's PVC capacity was 25.5 million tons, an increase of 800000 tons compared with 2018, an increase of 13.2%; the output reached 2011 million tons, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year, and the operating rate increased to 78.85%. The self-sufficiency rate is about 99%. Among the five general resins, PVC has the highest self-sufficiency rate.
According to the distribution of PVC production capacity, the PVC production capacity in North China, East China, central China, Northwest China and southwest China is relatively large, but under the guidance of chlor alkali industry policy, the PVC production capacity is transferred from East China to Northwest China. By 2019, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are the two regions with the most production capacity, accounting for 35%. Northwest / North China, such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, is not only the main production area of calcium carbide, but also the main production area of PVC. These areas have obvious cost advantages, and by virtue of the cost advantages, they have formed several leading chlor alkali enterprises, and the main enterprise industrial chain has been continuously improved.
4. PVC production in China
In 2013-2015, due to the poor economic situation and the weakening of real estate, the growth rate of demand was low, and the average growth rate of domestic consumption was 2.5% in three years. In 2016-2019, with the improvement of real estate and export of products, the demand for PVC increased significantly. The average growth rate of domestic consumption in four years was 6.1%. The apparent consumption of PVC in 2019 was 20.31 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are still the main consumption areas of PVC, and the total consumption of Guangdong, Fujian, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang in 2019 accounts for more than half of the total domestic consumption.
China's PVC consumption is divided into two parts
(1) Soft products mainly include wire and cable, films for various purposes (calendered films, waterproof coiled materials, foldable doors, etc.) according to thickness, floor paving materials, fabric coating, artificial leather, various kinds of hose, gloves, toys, plastic shoes, some special coatings and sealants, etc.
(2) Hard products represented by doors and windows, various profiles and pipes, hard pieces, bottles and other products. In 2019, the proportion of PVC products does not change much. As the main downstream, the demand for pipes grows rapidly. The orders of leading enterprises are higher, and the consumption of PVC raw materials increases significantly. However, due to the impact of environmental protection, the start-up of small and medium-sized enterprises is unstable, and the demand has weakened. Pipes are still the main driving force of PVC demand. In 2019, the proportion of pipes / pipe fittings and profiles in PVC products remains stable, and they account for about 50% of PVC raw materials More than half of the downstream. Slightly different from that in 2018, the soft products, such as flooring and wallboard, account for 10.5% of the downstream demand of PVC, which is 3% higher than that in 2018; in addition, the proportion of film in 2019 is 9.5%, which is 1.5% lower than that in 2018.
5 Import and export of PVC in China
With the rapid development of China's PVC industry, China's PVC import and export pattern has undergone significant changes. From the change of import volume over the years, before 2004, China's PVC was mainly imported. In 2003, China's apparent consumption of PVC was about 6.42 million tons, and the import was 2.03 million tons, with an external dependence of 31%. With the implementation of China's PVC anti-dumping policies against the United States, Russia, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, the domestic PVC industry has developed rapidly, and the self-sufficiency rate of PVC in China has increased year by year. As of 2008, the import volume of PVC in China has been declining year by year. In 2009, China's PVC import volume rose slightly to 1.7155 million tons, but it began to fall again in 2010. This trend has continued until 2014. In 2015, China's PVC imports increased slightly, but the growth rate was limited. In 2016, due to the weak demand of foreign downstream products, the import volume dropped significantly. In 2018 and 2019, China's imports decreased year by year, mainly due to the large flow of goods from Taiwan, Japan and South Korea to the Indian market, while the flow to the Chinese market decreased slightly.
