Since the second half of 2020, the Carbon Black market seems to be "counter attacking", and the profit margin of carbon black enterprises is rising steadily with the price rising many times. The market seems to be "prosperous". After the Spring Festival of 2021, the price of carbon black market rose for half a year. The bubble behind the early stage of the market was gradually punctured. The negative factors behind the weakening of the carbon black market in April were:
Coal tar price weakens -- cost pressure of carbon black enterprises weakens
In the first ten days of March, with the demand recovery of downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises after the Spring Festival, the high price of coal tar pushed up and put pressure on the cost of carbon black, which provided some psychological support for the continuation of the high price of carbon black. However, after the middle and last ten days of March, some deep processing products fell and the loss situation intensified, the price trend of coal tar showed a high decline, and the cost of carbon black declined, The price support of carbon black industry is weakening. As of April, the transaction price of mainstream coal in Shandong was 3330-3280 yuan / ton.
At present, the overall starting load of coke enterprises is maintained at more than 80%, and the coal tar supply may not change much in April. However, under the pressure of storage and maintenance plan plus loss of some deep processing enterprises in April, there are many negative factors in the coal tar market, and the price may weaken and fluctuate, which has a certain negative impact on the heart of the carbon black industry.
Demand growth of tire enterprises slows down
In the spring holiday of 2021, most tire enterprises stopped production during the holiday, but there was still a certain buffer for carbon black stock in February. In March, the inventory of carbon black was relatively sufficient, and the growth rate of demand for carbon black slowed down compared with that in the early spring festival. In addition, the cost pressure of tire enterprises was higher under the high carbon black level. In April, tire enterprises had a strong bargaining mood for new carbon black orders, and mainstream enterprises sent them around Qingming Festival To the tire factory, new single price is still deadlocked, carbon black price stability resistance is larger.
According to Zhuo Chuang's statistics, the average starting load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province in March was 76.84%, 37.83% higher than that of last month; the average starting load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in China was 75.70%, 34.73% lower than that of last month. It can be seen that the starting level of current tire enterprises is relatively high. Under the background of good recovery of internal and external demand, the inventory reserve of current tire enterprises is not high. Under the current node, the starting load of tire in April may remain at the current high level, and the downward space of carbon black price may be limited under the support of rigid chassis on the demand side.
Carbon black enterprises start high continuous - carbon black industry inventory increased significantly
According to the data, the average operating load of domestic carbon black enterprises in March was 70.85%, up 16.53% over the same period of last year, with a slight drop of 0.33% over the same period of last year; the inventory of domestic carbon black enterprises in March was 196000 tons, up 31.00% over the same period of last year, with a decrease of 27.37% over the same period of last year. The reasons for the high starting load of carbon black enterprises in March are as follows: first, the current profit level of the industry is still considerable, except for the maintenance of individual carbon black enterprises, they basically maintain a high starting load and have strong shipping intention; second, the impact of external factors such as environmental protection and production restriction on the starting load of carbon black enterprises is weakening. Third, after the Spring Festival, the downstream tire market trading recovered, and the demand for carbon black was still large, which supported the carbon black enterprises to maintain a high starting level. At present, the carbon black industry maintains a high level of more than 70%, the output of carbon black is greater than the consumption, and the inventory also presents a cumulative trend. In the second half of 2020, the supply of carbon black was tight, and the main driving force of market price was gradually weakening. In March, the focus of negotiation on carbon black cash and foreign exchange market shifted downward for many times.
In April, carbon black enterprises have no strong intention to reduce the starting load under certain profit margin, and the starting load of carbon black industry may maintain the current high consolidation. Under the basic contradiction of overcapacity in the carbon black industry in Beijing, the supply side of the industry is relatively abundant, the increase in output is greater than the increase in consumption, the industry inventory still has growth expectations, and the bargaining initiative of the carbon black industry may be weakened compared with the previous period.
Forecast: compared with the beginning of March, the price of carbon black for new orders of tire factories in April may be around 400-500 yuan / ton. At present, there are many negative factors in the carbon black market, among which the pressure of increasing supply is the main reason for the expected reduction of carbon black market price, but the carbon black price still has strong resilience under the support of rigid demand expectation.
