Since March, the market price of Carbon Black has been rising. As of the receipt of the manuscript, taking the Shandong market N330 as an example, the market price of carbon black rose to about 10300 yuan / ton, up 1800 yuan / ton or 21.18% from the beginning of March, the highest price in nearly five years. The reasons for the rising market price of carbon black are mainly analyzed from the supply and demand side:
1. High raw material cost and strong cost support
Since March, the high price of raw materials has fluctuated upward. As of the time of receipt, taking Shandong as an example, the price of raw coal tar rose to 5150 yuan / ton, up 194 yuan / ton or 3.91% from the beginning of March. The main reason is that the production restriction of coke enterprises still exists, and the tight supply of raw materials remains unchanged. Although the downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises have strong resistance, the downstream enterprises have less raw material inventory, and the strong demand has boosted the rising price of raw materials.
2. Due to the impact of public health events, the start-up of enterprises is limited
Affected by domestic public health events, the transportation in most areas is seriously blocked, the arrival time of raw materials is prolonged, the logistics freight rate is rising and other factors make the pressure of carbon black enterprises increasing, and the commencement of most carbon black enterprises is limited. In addition, some carbon black enterprises stop production for maintenance, dragging the overall commencement of the carbon black industry down, and the industrial inventory is low.
3. The export of carbon black increased and the supply decreased
Under the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine, many western countries have imposed sanctions on Russia, resulting in a large carbon black supply gap in Europe, while the overseas demand of relevant downstream rubber products enterprises in Europe has increased. Most foreign downstream enterprises choose domestic carbon black, driving the increase of carbon black export. Some domestic carbon black enterprises go to the warehouse quickly, and some brands are out of stock.
4. The profit of carbon black enterprises decreased significantly and the cost pressure increased
With the rising price of raw materials, the cost of carbon black is increasing, and the profit of carbon black enterprises is significantly reduced. Under the pressure of cost, the offer of carbon black enterprises pushed up. As of April 25, the theoretical profit of carbon black industry was 45 yuan / ton.
To sum up, under various favorable factors, the offer of carbon black enterprises is still strong, and the market price continues to be high. But at the same time, we need to pay more attention to the downstream demand. According to the statistics of Longzhong information, as of the receipt of the manuscript, the operating rate of semi steel tire sample enterprises of main downstream tire enterprises was 67.12%, mom + 2.32%, and year-on-year - 5.55%. The operating rate of all steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, month on month + 1.95%, year-on-year - 15.02%. The demand of main downstream tire enterprises continues to be weak, and the purchase enthusiasm of end users is not high. Most downstream enterprises just need to purchase, and the market transaction is flat, dragging down the overall demand of carbon black market.
Future forecast: near the "May Day" holiday, downstream deep processing and carbon black enterprises may arrange storage and preparation in advance. It is expected that the price of raw coal tar may still rise in the short term, and the cost support performance is strong. It is expected that the market price of carbon black will be strong under the support of cost in the short term. However, in the long run, the demand of downstream end users is still weak. Downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of the high price of carbon black, and the price of new orders is seriously depressed. It is not ruled out that the market price of carbon black may fall under the drag of demand. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the carbon black market.
