Polyvinyl Alcohol industry:
1) Polyvinyl alcohol industry profile: Polyvinyl alcohol is a water-soluble polymer material with the general formula of [C2H4O] n. Its main classification indicators are degree of polymerization and degree of alcoholysis, which are generally divided into 17-99, 20-99, 26-99, 17-88, 20-88, 24-88, etc. The first two positions represent degree of polymerization, and the last two positions represent degree of alcoholysis, for example, 17-99 represents degree of polymerization 1700 and degree of alcoholysis 99.
PVA has excellent properties such as cohesiveness, fiber forming, emulsification stability, gas barrier, film forming, biodegradability, etc. It is mainly used in the production of polymerization additives, special fibers, adhesives, safety glass sandwich film (PVB film), water soluble film, optical film, etc. It is widely used in fine chemical, green building, paper, fiber, automobile, degradable packaging, optoelectronics, medicine and other industries.
Polyvinyl alcohol industry is a technology-intensive industry with long production process route, complex technology and great difficulty. The main production processes of polyvinyl alcohol include carbide acetylene method, petroleum ethylene method and natural gas acetylene method. Due to the difference in energy consumption structure, the production of polyvinyl alcohol in the world is mainly based on the petroleum ethylene method, while in China, the calcium carbide acetylene method is the main method. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, at present, there are 9 domestic polyvinyl alcohol production enterprises (belonging to 5 group companies including Sinopec and Wanwei High-tech), among which the calcium carbide acetylene method is the dominant one, and there are 5 production enterprises with a total capacity of 620000 tons, accounting for about 62% of the total domestic polyvinyl alcohol production capacity.
2) Development of polyvinyl alcohol industry: polyvinyl alcohol was first synthesized by German chemists in 1924, small-scale production was realized in 1926, and industrial production was first realized by Japan Cangfu Rayon Company in 1950. China's polyvinyl alcohol industry started in the 1960s. In 1963, a set of vinylon production line with an annual output of 10000 tons was introduced from Japan. Subsequently, 13 polyvinyl alcohol enterprises were built in China, with a total capacity of 200000 tons. However, due to low product quality, limited downstream application fields, low industry operating rate and serious inventory. In the middle and late 1980s, with the continuous development of application fields other than vinylon, polyvinyl alcohol production enterprises showed new development vitality, and successively organized the production of non-fiber polyvinyl alcohol.
From the middle and late 1990s to 2007, the market price of polyvinyl alcohol was on the rise as a whole, and the market supply was in short supply. The domestic polyvinyl alcohol industry had a large-scale capacity expansion. After the global financial crisis in 2008, affected by the global demand slump and raw material price fluctuations, the industry profit space was squeezed. With the production of new units, the industry entered the adjustment stage of overcapacity. Since the 12th Five-Year Plan, the national environmental protection standards have been continuously improved, accelerating the withdrawal of backward production capacity in the industry. At present, the domestic polyvinyl alcohol industry has basically completed the integration, and with the increasing demand for high-value-added PVA products in emerging industries such as photovoltaic, photovoltaic and pharmaceutical industries, the industry has entered a benign development stage of transformation and upgrading.
3) Supply, demand and change of polyvinyl alcohol market:
① Market demand: In terms of demand scale, after the global financial crisis, due to the low prosperity of downstream industries such as adhesives and textile sizing, and the risk of new product substitution in some fields, the global consumption of polyvinyl alcohol shows a relatively stable and small growth trend. In 2015, the world consumption of polyvinyl alcohol was 1.343 million tons, and in 2020, the consumption remained around 1.35 million tons. The demand for polyvinyl alcohol is mainly concentrated in Northeast Asia, North America and Western Europe, and the consumption of these three regions accounts for about 85% of the total global consumption.
China is the world's most important polyvinyl alcohol consumption market, accounting for about 50% of the total global consumption. In recent years, while the total consumption of China's polyvinyl alcohol industry has remained stable, the consumption structure has been continuously optimized, and the proportion of downstream high-value-added demand has increased. In 2016, China's apparent consumption of polyvinyl alcohol was 6500000 tons, and increased to 696000 tons in 2017. In 2018, due to the decline in the prosperity of downstream building materials, construction and other industries, as well as the increase in domestic exports and imports of polyvinyl alcohol, the domestic apparent consumption decreased to 640000 tons in that year. Since 2019, the downstream market demand has stabilized and recovered, and the emerging demand has increased. The domestic apparent consumption has risen to 652000 tons in the same year; In 2020, under the influence of the COVID-19, the apparent consumption of polyvinyl alcohol in China will still grow to 684000 tons, up 4.9% year on year. In 2021, the apparent consumption of polyvinyl alcohol in China will drop to 582000 tons due to the decrease of domestic polyvinyl alcohol supply and the increase of export.
In terms of demand structure, according to the statistics of CICC Qixin International Consulting, the global consumption demand of PVA downstream in 2020 mainly comes from the fields of polymerization additives, PVB, fabric size, adhesives, pulp and coating, and vinylon, PVA film, etc. Among them, polymerization auxiliaries account for 24%, which is the main application field of PVA downstream; PVB used for building and automobile safety glass interlayer has developed rapidly in recent years, and has become the second largest application field of polyvinyl alcohol, with the demand accounting for 15%.
In the early stage of China, polyvinyl alcohol was mainly used in vinylon. In the 1970s and 1980s, polyvinyl alcohol accounted for 70% of the consumption of vinylon. With the continuous development of the use of polyvinyl alcohol in pulp, paint and other fields, and the large-scale production of polyester, acrylic and other synthetic fibers, the proportion of polyvinyl alcohol in the application of vinylon fibers is gradually decreasing, while the consumption in other fields is increasing. Among them, the application of polyvinyl alcohol in construction, adhesives and other fields has grown most significantly. According to statistics, in the domestic consumption structure of polyvinyl alcohol, the proportion of polymerization additives is 38%, the proportion of fabric size is 20%, the proportion of adhesive is 12%, and the proportion of vinylon fiber is 11%. Other applications are mainly concentrated in the fields of paper making, architectural coating, PVB, dispersant, etc. In recent years, the proportion of demand for PVA in high value-added emerging fields such as PVB and PVA water soluble film has been increasing. However, compared with the world, the proportion of high-end demand for PVB and PVA film in the consumption structure of PVA in China is still relatively low, and there is a large space for market improvement in relevant fields.
② Market supply: According to the statistics of CICC Enterprise Trust International Consulting, the global total production capacity of polyvinyl alcohol is about 1.85 million tons, mainly concentrated in China, Japan, the United States and other countries and regions, of which the Asia-Pacific region is the main production region, accounting for more than 85% of the world's total production. In 2021, the world's actual production of polyvinyl alcohol will be about 1.25 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 68%. With the increasing competition in the traditional polyvinyl alcohol product market, international giants have gradually withdrawn from the traditional polyvinyl alcohol product market and turned to the downstream to expand the production of PVA extension products with high added value. The global polyvinyl alcohol production capacity is gradually shifting to China.
China's PVA production capacity accounts for about 60% of the global total capacity, and is the largest PVA production country in the world at present. In recent years, the backward production capacity of China's polyvinyl alcohol industry has gradually withdrawn, and the total output and operating rate have shown an overall growth trend. In 2020, the total design capacity of polyvinyl alcohol in China is 1.096 million tons. Excluding some of the production capacity that has been stopped and is inefficient and backward, the effective capacity is about 99.6 million tons, and the actual output is 783000 tons, an increase of 10.0% over 2016. In 2021, affected by the COVID-19 and other factors, the operating rate of domestic polyvinyl alcohol industry will decline.
4) Development trend of polyvinyl alcohol industry:
① With the expansion of demand and the clearing of production capacity, the industry boom continues to rise: with the development of social economy and the expansion of PVA downstream application fields, the domestic demand for PVA has increased steadily in recent years, especially for special PVA products. The first round of integration of the domestic PVA industry at the supply side has been basically completed, and small and medium-sized capacity has withdrawn, and the production and sales of major manufacturers in the industry have become increasingly rational.
With the expansion and upgrading of the demand side and the continuous optimization of the supply side, the supply and demand of polyvinyl alcohol market has gradually balanced, the price has steadily increased, the industry prosperity has continued to improve, and the benign development has been achieved, which provides a good industry environment for enterprises in the industry to deepen technical innovation and develop high value-added PVA products.
② Downstream application fields continue to expand, and high-end products gradually realize import substitution: At present, China's polyvinyl alcohol products are still dominated by conventional products, and special performance polyvinyl alcohol products with high added value mainly rely on imports. The homogenization competition of domestic PVA enterprises is relatively fierce. The import substitution of high-end products and the development of international markets have become the inevitable trend of the future development of domestic PVA enterprises.
From the development experience of PVA industry in developed countries, the transformation and upgrading of PVA industry is mainly reflected in the expansion of downstream application fields driven by product performance improvement. With the rapid growth of demand in the fields of automobile, architecture, optoelectronics, green packaging and medicine, new products such as PVA optical film, PVA water soluble film and PVB film have great market potential. Major enterprises in the domestic PVA industry have continuously increased their investment in research and development, and are committed to improving the quality of PVA products and developing high value-added PVA products. At present, the domestic common varieties of PVA products have basically realized import substitution, the production technology of special varieties and extension products of PVA has become increasingly mature, new products are gradually put on the market, and the downstream application space of the domestic PVA industry has been further expanded. The main high value-added PVA products are as follows:
a) PVA products for water soluble film: water soluble film is a new green packaging material with unique biodegradable characteristics, and the market demand has increased rapidly in recent years. Because water-soluble film needs to have better transparency and gloss, higher tensile strength and tear strength, high-end water-soluble film products such as laundry beads, water transfer film and other products have higher performance requirements, and have high requirements for the solubility, transparency and other properties of raw PVA. With the rapid expansion of domestic high-end water-soluble film market, the demand for PVA products for high-end water-soluble film will continue to grow.
b) High-end PVB special material: PVB is polyvinyl butyral. PVB film is mainly used as an intermediate adhesive film layer in the manufacture of laminated safety glass, and is widely used in automobile, high-rise buildings, aviation, navigation and other fields. The high-end PVB film has been under the monopoly of Japanese enterprises in the past few decades, but in recent years, the gap between China's PVB film and the international advanced enterprises such as Japan's Corelli in technology level has been narrowing. The leading domestic PVB enterprises have broken through the automotive grade PVB, building grade PVB and photovoltaic grade PVB products, and have effectively driven the technical upgrading of China's polyvinyl alcohol industry by purchasing PVB special materials from domestic manufacturers.
c) Vinyl chloride polymerization dispersant: suspension polymerization is the main method for industrial production of Pvc Resin. As an important auxiliary for suspension polymerization of vinyl chloride, vinyl chloride polymerization dispersant largely determines the quality and performance of PVC products. According to the statistics of Jinlianchuang, China's PVC production capacity accounts for more than 40% of the global total production capacity. However, vinyl chloride polymerization dispersant has been imported from abroad for a long time, and the market is basically monopolized by a small number of enterprises such as Coca-Cola of Japan, MCC, Synthamer of the United Kingdom, and the price remains high. In recent years, with the continuous improvement of domestic technology, domestic vinyl chloride polymerization dispersants are gradually replacing imports.
d) PVA products for optical film: optical film prepared with PVA is the core material of polarizer, and polarizer is the core component of LCD liquid crystal display. Against the background of the rapid development of the global LCD display industry, the global polarizer market has grown steadily, resulting in a broad market demand for optical films in the future, and driving the rapid growth of the demand for PVA products for optical films.
e) Other special PVA products: As one of the few water-soluble polymers, polyvinyl alcohol has been continuously expanded in its application field. In recent years, PVA products with special properties continue to emerge and gradually enter the market, such as anionic modified PVA, cationic modified PVA, low ethylene modified PVA, acetyl modified PVA and other modified PVA products. Special PVA products can meet the requirements of specific application fields for material properties, and further expand the application fields of PVA. At present, special PVA products mainly rely on imports and have large import substitution space.
③ Strict environmental protection control and promotion of industry integration, transformation and upgrading: In recent years, the national environmental protection control has continued to increase, the environmental protection policy has become stricter, and the environmental protection investment and regulatory pressure of the PVA industry has increased. At present, the integration of domestic PVA industry has been basically completed, backward production capacity and vulnerable enterprises have basically withdrawn, and the industry will accelerate its transformation to high value-added and green environmental protection in the future. The advantages of leading enterprises with strong R&D capability, advanced technology, long industrial chain, low cost and good efficiency in the industry will be further highlighted
The industry concentration is expected to further improve.
(3) Downstream polyvinyl alcohol special fiber industry:
1) Basic information of PVA special fiber industry: PVA fiber is a synthetic fiber made by dissolving PVA in water and spinning it dry or wet. PVA fiber can be made into polyvinyl formal fiber by formaldehyde treatment, and the trade name is vinylon (or vinylon). In the industrial field, vinylon can be used to make canvas, waterproof cloth, filter cloth, transport belt, packaging materials, medical and sanitary materials, geotextile, fishing net and cable, etc., and can also be blended with cotton to make various clothing and indoor supplies or produce knitwear. Before the 1970s, vinylon was an important textile material in China, which solved the problem of people's clothing.
In recent years, with the continuous development of manufacturing process and technology, the proportion of special fiber products in the PVA fiber industry has been increasing, and the application fields are also increasingly rich. At present, PVA fibers with high strength and high modulus and water-soluble PVA fibers are the major products in China. Among them, high-strength and high-modulus PVA fiber is characterized by high strength and Young's modulus, low elongation, ACID and alkali resistance, solvent resistance, good affinity and binding with cement, gypsum and other substrates, non-toxic, pollution-free, harmless to human body, and is a green building material with broad prospects; Water-soluble PVA fiber is a functional differential fiber, with ideal water solubility temperature, strength and elongation, good acid resistance, alkali resistance, dry heat resistance, and tasteless and non-toxic after being dissolved in water. It is an excellent green environmental protection product.
In the future, PVA special fiber products will be the development focus of the PVA fiber industry, such as high-strength high-modulus fiber, water-soluble fiber dissolved at 20 ℃ and below, non-dripping or comfortable flame retardant fiber, fiber for ECC, etc. The industrial production technology of some products still needs to be broken.
2) Supply, demand and changes of PVA special fiber market: According to the statistics of CICC Enterprise Trust International Consulting, in the field of high-strength and high-modulus PVA fiber, the world's demand for high-strength and high-modulus PVA fiber in 2020 will be about 80000 tons, of which about 70000 tons will be used in the field of building materials, mainly to replace asbestos, and a small amount will be used in the concrete industry; In the domestic market, according to the statistics of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, the actual output of high-strength and high-modulus polyvinyl alcohol fiber in China in 2020 is 44800 tons. In the downstream application fields, in addition to a small amount of flame-retardant fibers used in special clothing fields such as public security, armed police and navy, high-strength and high-modulus PVA fibers are mainly used to replace asbestos and add to cement products to enhance the strength and anti-cracking and anti-cracking properties of cement. Affected by cost factors, the replacement of asbestos with high-strength and high-modulus PVA fiber has not been widely promoted in China at present, and domestic manufacturers mainly face the export market. In recent years, the demand pattern of foreign customers for high-strength and high-modulus PVA fiber is basically stable, and the main export markets are concentrated in South America, Southeast Asia and Europe.
In the field of water-soluble PVA fiber, China's total production capacity of water-soluble PVA fiber in 2020 was 65500 tons, and the actual output was 40400 tons, which increased compared with 2019. Water-soluble PVA fibers are mainly used in water-soluble nonwovens and water-soluble yarns. At present, the main domestic products are still water-soluble vinylon dissolved at 90 ℃, and the demand for low-temperature water-soluble vinylon is relatively limited.
3) Development trend of polyvinyl alcohol special fiber industry:
① It is an inevitable trend for high-strength and high-modulus PVA fiber to replace asbestos: high-strength and high-modulus PVA fiber has good adhesion with cement, and is an ideal green environmental protection substitute for asbestos. Because of the carcinogenicity of asbestos, the World Health Organization, the United Nations and other international organizations have successively advocated the prohibition of asbestos products. Developed countries such as Europe and the United States have widely used high-strength and high-modulus PVA fiber to replace asbestos, and have achieved good results in the manufacture of asbestos-free cement boards. China has clearly proposed that high-strength and high-modulus PVA fiber is an ideal substitute for asbestos products. With the improvement of people's living standards and the gradual strengthening of health and environmental awareness, high-strength and high-modulus PVA fiber has gradually become an inevitable trend to replace asbestos.
② Water-soluble PVA fiber and other characteristic products have a wide demand in the fields of textile and paper making. Water-soluble PVA fiber can be used in the textile industry as a fabric size. The varieties include filament, wool top, etc., which are mostly used in water-soluble non-woven fabrics. In addition, it is also widely used in products such as untwisted towels. PVA fiber occupies an important position in the water soluble nonwovens market due to its water soluble property. In addition, PVA fiber also has advantages in the field of paper making. It can be used as the skeleton material of paper to improve the strength of paper. Driven by the demand of textile, paper and other industries, water-soluble PVA fiber has a good prospect.
