This week, near the end of the month, the domestic Carbon Black market has become increasingly cold. At present, the high level of high temperature coal tar, the upstream raw material of carbon black, has been deadlocked, and the cost of carbon black enterprises continues to bear pressure; On the downstream side, the overall market demand was sluggish, and the logistics was affected by epidemic factors in some regions, so the overall market performance was very sluggish
First, it is difficult to change the high level of coal tar during the year. Recently, the coke market has seen a good performance. First, it has risen and landed in an all-round way, and then there has been a clamour. However, it is difficult to change the tight supply of coal tar. There are three reasons: first, the general environment of iron and steel has not changed. The demand for steel enterprises to replenish the warehouse will benefit coke in the short term, but it is lack of support in the long term, and coke enterprises are still in a state of theoretical loss; Second, the previous law, the supply of coking coal is expected to be tight at the end of the year, and the price of raw materials for coke enterprises is difficult to reduce; Third, there are still many possibilities for the impact of external uncertain factors. The heavy pollution weather control in northern winter and the influence of epidemic factors in some areas may restrict the increase of coke enterprises' starting load.
In terms of coal tar demand, deep processing has always been a loyal supporter of coal tar this year. Although the prices of coal tar pitch, industrial naphthalene and anthracene oil have ended their previous strength recently, they are still operating at a high level. In addition, based on the current cost of coal tar, coal tar deep processing enterprises are still profitable. Therefore, even though the market has some resistance to the high price of coal tar, the supply continues to be tight, Under the condition of firm price support mentality of coke enterprises, coal tar in some areas will have shocks during the year, but the probability of significant price reduction is low.
Second, the supply of carbon black will remain adequate during the year. First of all, from the start of construction, at present, the overall starting load of domestic carbon black enterprises is about 50%, and the supply of carbon black in the market is relatively stable. More importantly, in terms of sales, the overall performance of the domestic market is weak at present. In October, China's carbon black exports fell by 12.5% month on month in foreign markets. It is expected to further decline in November. The weak performance of the demand side has delayed the delivery speed of carbon black manufacturers. At present, the supply of carbon black in the market is sufficient. If the demand does not improve within the year, even if the carbon black enterprises stop production again, the market carbon black supply will remain sufficient.
Third, the demand for carbon black will remain low this year. At present, the price of carbon black is at a historical high level, and the downstream market as a whole is resistant to the high price of carbon black. In particular, the overall environment: domestic demand and foreign demand are not optimistic. At the beginning of November, the shipping price of the U.S. - Spain route fell below the level before the epidemic, and the European and South American routes also fell sharply, which also illustrates the overall situation of the overall environment. In this situation:
1. Tyre market performance under pressure
At present, the overall starting load of tire enterprises is temporarily stable. At present, the starting load of all steel tire enterprises in Shandong is about 60%, and that of semi steel tire enterprises is about 70%. The downstream demand for tires, especially the replacement market, is sluggish, and the export market is not ideal. In the long run, the tire market does not have much support for improvement.
2. The market performance of rubber products is sluggish
According to the market feedback, rubber products enterprises are under great pressure. Compared with tire enterprises, rubber products enterprises are generally small in size and have little bargaining power with upstream and downstream enterprises. Under the high price of raw material carbon black, the industry is facing difficulties in cost transmission, and some enterprises are forced to reduce or stop production.
3. The market performance of Plastic Masterbatch is cold
The performance of the plastic masterbatch industry this year is far worse than before. In the case of poor downstream demand, it also hit a historical high level of carbon black as a raw material, which makes many enterprises really helpless. At the market operation level, some powerful enterprises stock carbon black at low prices, making the industry more competitive.
To sum up, for the carbon black industry, there are many negative factors in the current market as a whole, and the future trend of carbon black is not optimistic within the year.
